What this is

Follow great investors, then wait for your own review zone

Demo

PurposeResearch

Tracked ideas0

Triggered0

Advice givenNone

The dashboard tracks public holdings, valuation ranges, and user-defined review prices. It does not tell users to buy or sell.

Core workflow

From idea to review alert

Framework

FindCollect companies from Berkshire filings, Morningstar, investor letters, and your own research.

ValueCompare current price, fair value, and a user-defined margin-of-safety price.

ReviewWhen price enters the review zone, generate a research memo instead of an automatic trade.

TrackUse paper portfolios and watchlists before any real-world decision.

Investment principles

Owner mindset before price action

Core rules

1Buying a stock means buying a business.

Do not study the ticker first. Study how the company makes money, why customers pay, what can go wrong, and whether it is inside your circle of competence.

2Good companies still need a margin of safety.

The value of a business is the present value of future owner cash flows. A great company can still be a poor investment if the purchase price leaves no room for error.

3If you would not hold it for 10 years, do not buy it.

Long holding periods let business quality, reinvestment, and compounding do the heavy lifting. The goal is not activity; the goal is durable ownership.

4Never risk permanent capital loss.

Compounding is powerful, but losses are brutal. Avoiding permanent loss matters more than chasing every extra point of return.

Compounding example

$10,000 held for 10 years

The longer the runway, the larger the compounding gap.

5%$16,289

10%$25,937

15%$40,456

20%$61,917

Buffett Indicator

US total market cap / GDP

Current reading~219%

Extreme

FairWarmHotExtreme

FairBelow 100%

Warm100%-150%

Hot150%-200%

ExtremeAbove 200%

The Buffett Indicator compares the total value of the US stock market with US GDP. It is a valuation temperature gauge, not a precise timing signal. At about 219%, this demo reading sits in the Extreme zone.

Research discipline

What the dashboard should and should not do

Guardrails

Show factsPrices, estimates, filings, ratings, and memo history.

Flag zonesHighlight when a stock reaches a user-defined review price.

No adviceNever say a user should buy, sell, or hold a security.

Paper firstVirtual portfolios come before real-money decisions.

Market indicators

Dollar, gold, valuation, equity index, and P/E trends

Cross-asset view

Demo/reference readings only. P/E series should be sourced consistently, because trailing, forward, index-level, and exchange-level multiples can differ materially.

Debt and liquidity anchors

Historical pressure points that reprice assets

Macro risk

Indicator	Current reading	Watch level	Stress level	Status

Market regime playbook

When the Buffett Indicator is elevated

Be selective

Do not panic-sellA high market-cap-to-GDP ratio is a temperature gauge, not a precise sell signal.

Do not chaseAvoid deploying all new capital into broad indexes or popular compounders at stretched prices.

Let cash earnUse cash, T-bills, term deposits, or short-duration bonds as paid patience.

Raise the hurdleDemand wider safety margins, stronger balance sheets, and clearer owner-earnings durability.

Defensive bucket35%-45%Cash, T-bills, term deposits, short-duration bonds.

Core bucket25%-35%Broad index exposure, deployed gradually over 6-12 months.

Opportunity bucket15%-25%Only for quality businesses that enter the user-defined review zone.

Hedge bucket5%-10%Gold, alternatives, or other diversifiers where appropriate.

Buffett Indicator regime	Defensive	Core index	Quality review zones	Diversifiers

$100 Buffett Indicator model

Allocation changes with market valuation, reviewed twice a year

Educational

Example only: for a $100 paper allocation, the mix should move with the Buffett Indicator. Review the allocation semiannually, not every week.

Guru investors

Track proven investors and their public research trails

Research map

Investor / Institution	Style	Primary sources	How we use it

Guru holdings sample set

Why they own it, where our review price sits

Review zone Watch Expensive

Current$80The market price available today.

Fair value$100Our research estimate of what the business is worth.

Review price$70The price where the idea enters deeper research, not an automatic trade.

Rule of thumbReview zoneAbove fair value is expensive. Below fair value is discounted. At or below review price triggers review.

Discount20%How far the current price sits below fair value.

Required margin30%The target discount from fair value to review price.

MoatWideThe durability of the company's competitive advantage.

StatusWatchThe dashboard label based on price versus value. It is a research signal, not a buy or sell instruction.

Important: premium-priced ideas do not have a margin of safety. Premium rows are marked as not available at a premium.

How fair value is estimatedFair value is a research estimate, not a market quote. It can come from discounted future cash flows, owner earnings, sum-of-the-parts, asset value, or a conservative normalized earnings multiple.

How review price is calculatedReview price applies a required margin to fair value. Example: fair value $100 and required margin 30% gives a review price of $70.

Why methods differCompounders may use owner earnings. Banks need book value and float quality. Cyclicals need normalized earnings or asset-cycle analysis.

Company	Held by	Type	Current	Fair value	Review price	Discount	Required margin	Moat	Status

Graham formula · DCF · Munger quality overlay

Holdings & watchlist — five-step valuation

Updated 2026-07-10

① Graham V₁EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 0.88 — three growth scenarios

② DCF V₂Conservative FCF, 12% discount rate, or specialist method

③ min(V₁, V₂)Take the smaller → apply 50% MOS (or 70% if all Munger criteria met)

中国平安 H股

2318.HK · Insurance · Turnaround

HK$53.25 P/E 6.75x · EPS ¥7.33

Review zone

① Graham formula V₁

Scenario	g	V₁	50% line	vs ¥49
Pessimistic	5%	¥119	¥59.5	✓ In zone
Base	8%	¥157	¥78.5	✓ In zone
Optimistic	11%	¥196	¥98	✓ In zone

② DCF / specialist method V₂ — P/EV (insurance)

EV/share¥76.1

Current P/EV0.65x

Global avg P/EV0.8–1.2x

Fair value (P/EV 0.9x)¥68

EV already uses conservative actuarial assumptions. P/EV 0.65x = 35% discount to fair value before any Graham MOS is applied. min(V₁, V₂) = ¥68.

③ Munger quality overlay

Moat expanding — NBV recovering, agency quality improving
Capital-light — ¥3.8T float compounds without reinvestment
Management hold shares — no large insider selling
No value destruction — property losses are cyclical, not strategic

All 4 Munger criteria met → 70% overlay applicable. However, current price already sits below the 50% Graham line at every growth scenario. No need to relax.

Current¥49

Graham 50% (g=8%)¥78.5

Fair value (g=8%)¥157

Upside to fair+220%

福耀玻璃 H股

3606.HK · Manufacturing · Stalwart

HK$60.45 P/E ~17.5x · EPS ¥3.45

Above buy zone

① Graham formula V₁ (H share ≈ ¥55.7 RMB, 2026-07-11)

Scenario	g	V₁	50% line	vs ¥43.9
Pessimistic	8%	¥74	¥37	✗ Above
Base	10%	¥86	¥43	✗ Above (+30%)
Optimistic	12%	¥99	¥49.5	✗ Above (+13%)

② DCF V₂ — free cash flow

FCF/share¥2.18

FCF yield (H)3.9%

V₂ (DCF est.)¥64–74

min(V₁,V₂) 50%¥32–37

DCF is stricter — H share above the pure DCF 50% line. Munger overlay bridges the gap. CF quality is high: operating CF ¥120.55B > net profit ¥93.12B.

③ Munger quality overlay

Moat expanding — global share 38% (+1pct), gross margin 37.27% (3-yr rising trend)
Capital-light — ROE 25.6%, vertical integration lowers unit cost
Founder holds majority — Cao family controls company
Succession risk — Cao Dewang is 78, no clear heir named

H share rose from HK$48 → HK$60.45 since July 9 analysis. Now above all buy lines. Munger 70% entry (¥44.8) requires ~HK$49. Wait for pullback — do not chase.

Current (H)HK$60.45 / ¥55.7

Munger 70% entryHK$49 / ¥44.8

Graham 50% (g=10%)HK$46 / ¥43

Fair value (g=10%)¥86

格力电器

000651.SZ · Appliances · Slow Grower + Asset Play

~¥42 P/E ~9x · EPS ¥4.80

Watch

① Graham formula V₁

Scenario	g	V₁	50% line	vs ¥42
Pessimistic	3%	¥61	¥30.7	✗ Above
Base	5%	¥78	¥39	✗ Above (+7%)
Optimistic	7%	¥95	¥47.5	✓ In zone

② Cash-adjusted asset analysis V₂

Cash/share¥25.4

Operating P/E3.5x

Op. value (10x)¥48

Total (op+cash)¥73.4

¥1,500B cash = ¥25.4/share (64% of stock price). Stripping cash out, the operating business trades at 3.5x P/E. 50% MOS on ¥73.4 = ¥36.7 — current ¥42 sits above that line.

③ Munger quality overlay

Moat intact — world's largest AC maker, compressor vertical integration
ROE 30% — world-class for manufacturing, limited reinvestment needed
Dong Mingzhu holds shares — skin in the game
Value destruction history — phones, chips, agriculture: repeated failed diversification

4th Munger criterion fails. Stay at strict 50% MOS. Operating business is extremely cheap at 3.5x P/E but the ¥1,500B cash is management's "experiment fund" risk. Hold, await better price or dividend commitment.

Current¥42

Graham 50% (g=5%)¥39

Cash-adj. 50% line¥36.7

Fair value (g=5%)¥78

伊利股份

600887.SH · Dairy · Stalwart — Watchlist

¥24.85 P/E 13.01x · EPS ¥1.91

Watch

① Graham formula V₁

Scenario	g	V₁	50% line	vs ¥24.85
Pessimistic	5%	¥31.1	¥15.6	✗ Above
Base	8%	¥41.2	¥20.6	✗ Above
Optimistic	10%	¥47.9	¥24.0	≈ Borderline (−3%)

② DCF V₂ — free cash flow

FCF/share~¥1.27

FCF yield5.1%

V₂ (DCF est.)¥22–26

Munger 70% (g=8%)¥28.8

DCF intrinsic value ≈ ¥22–26: current price is at the upper edge of intrinsic value. Munger 70% at g=8% gives ¥28.8 → current ¥24.85 is inside that threshold.

③ Munger quality overlay

Moat — #1 brand in China but Mengniu is a near-equal rival; not a true monopoly
Capital intensity — cold-chain capex ~¥40B/yr; ROE 26% good but not exceptional
Management holds shares — clean record, no large selling
No value destruction — stable dividends, no failed diversification

2 criteria fully pass, 2 borderline. In Munger 70% zone at g=8%. Approaching but not yet at Graham 50% zone (need g=10–11%). Accumulate on dips below ¥24.

Current¥24.85

Munger 70% (g=8%)¥28.8

Graham 50% (g=10%)¥24.0

Fair value (g=8%)¥41.2

SGOV

US T-Bills ETF · 0–3 month · Cash ballast

4.4% yield US sovereign · near-zero risk

Hold

Role in portfolio

Annual yield~4.4%

Duration riskNone

Credit riskUS AAA

LiquidityDaily

Graham 25/75 rule: bond ballast ensures stock allocation never exceeds 75%. SGOV sets the opportunity cost benchmark — any stock must deliver expected returns meaningfully above 4.4% to justify equity risk (target: 10%+).

No Graham formula needed

Ballast — floors portfolio against equity drawdowns
Ammunition — converts to stock positions when review zones trigger
Benchmark — every equity idea must beat this yield to be worth the risk
Rate risk — if Fed cuts aggressively, yield drops; consider laddering into 2–3yr Treasuries

Maintain as 20–25% of portfolio per Graham 25/75 discipline. Do not reduce below 25% regardless of market sentiment.

Current yield4.4%

Min. equity hurdle10%+

Target allocation20–25%

Graham min. bond25%

中国新能源车出海 · 10年主题

买供应链，不买整车 — Levi's 法则

Research theme

核心逻辑 淘金热不买矿工，买卖铲子的人。中国汽车出口2024年约550万辆，全球第一。10年后保守估计出口800万辆+，海外本地生产再加500万辆。供应商跟着整车走，受益无需押注哪家OEM胜出。

BYD 的顾虑 BYD净利润率仅~4%（电池+整车+地产），垂直整合压缩回报。海外扩张资本开支大，估值已定价乐观预期。整车选手竞争激烈，价格战侵蚀利润。

正确姿势 福耀（3606.HK）是最优供应链赌注，但当前HK$60已离开买入区间（7月初HK$48才进Munger 70%线）。等回调至HK$49–52。拓普、伯特利、敏实同样等MOS。CATL护城河真实但需跌至¥150。

中国汽车出口量估算（万辆）

2024实际

550

2030悲观

800

2030基准

1,100

2034乐观

1,500

包含出口 + 海外本地生产（东南亚、欧洲、中东、澳洲）。开放市场渗透最快：澳洲 BYD 已夺第二销量。

福耀玻璃

3606.HK / 600660.SH

观察 · 等区间

护城河全球38%市占 · 垂直整合浮法玻璃 · OEM认证壁垒2-3年 · 美国本地化工厂 · 供应链首选

当前H股HK$60.45

Munger 70%线HK$49–52

Graham 50%线HK$46

FCF收益率3.9% (<5%)

⏳ 最优供应链标的，但已离开买入窗口（从HK$48涨至HK$60）。等回调至HK$49–52再建仓。H股优于A股。

拓普集团

601689.SH

观察

护城河 NVH减振隔音 + 热管理 + 线控底盘。特斯拉上海、蔚来、理想核心供应商。技术壁垒高，客户认证2年+。

营收增速30%+

客户集中特斯拉>30%

Lynch类型快速成长

MOS状态估值偏贵

⚠️ 业务优质，但估值需等候。回调至PEG<1时建立观察仓。

伯特利

603596.SH

观察

护城河电控制动（WCBS线控制动）+ 电子驻车。全球制动市场博世/大陆垄断，伯特利是中国本土突破者，国产替代窗口正在打开。

产品壁垒高（认证密集）

市场空间国产替代大

Lynch类型快速成长

MOS状态需等回调

⚠️ 国产替代逻辑清晰。等待合理估值入场，PEG<1为目标。

敏实集团

0425.HK

观察

护城河外饰件（车身饰条、门槛条）全球龙头。已在欧洲、北美设厂跟随客户出海，本地化制造壁垒已形成。港股上市，估值比A股合理。

全球布局已建海外产能

港股折价相对合理

Lynch类型稳健成长

MOS状态接近

👀 港股估值相对合理，出海布局最完整。持续跟踪，等待MOS确认。

宁德时代

300750.SZ · CATL

无安全边际

护城河评级 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 真实护城河：全球37%市占、CTP/麒麟技术专利、规模成本优势。但护城河不等于好价格。

当前价格~¥280

Graham 50% MOS价~¥150

所需跌幅-46%

P/E 当前~25x

⏳ 护城河真实，但当前价格没有安全边际。跌至¥150区间才到Graham 50%标准。等待，不追。

China AI infrastructure sleeve

Low-cost tokens need power, compute, networks, and platforms

Research theme

Portfolio originThis research sleeve starts from the idea that low-cost tokens need a full infrastructure stack: power, chips, networks, cloud, and AI platforms.

Why we track itIf token costs keep falling, AI demand can migrate toward infrastructure that delivers the lowest cost per useful task.

Main riskPolicy risk, sanctions, capital controls, accounting quality, and price wars require a wider margin of safety.

Company	Held by	Type	Current	Fair value	Review price	Discount	Required margin	Moat	Status

物理AI · Physical AI

Robots, automation, sensing, and autonomous systems

Next decade theme

Why physical AI is differentSoftware AI runs in the cloud. Physical AI must sense the real world, reason at the edge, and act through motors and actuators. That adds cost, latency, and hardware dependencies that create durable moats — and durable investment themes.

Who wins the physical layerCompanies with durable installed bases, proprietary sensing and vision platforms, and edge AI compute are the picks-and-shovels of the physical AI era. NVDA's Jetson/Isaac stack, Keyence's direct-sales sensor model, and ISRG's razor-and-blade robot moat are structural advantages, not cyclical tailwinds.

Key risksHumanoid robots are still early-stage; capex cycles drive short-term revenue swings; NVDA and TSLA already price in significant optionality. Demand a wider margin of safety on speculative names and concentrate on proven industrial compounders first.

Company	Theme	Category	Current	Fair value	Review price	Discount	Required margin	Moat	Status

Demo data only. Physical AI is a broad theme — valuations range from mature industrial compounders (ISRG, Keyence) to speculative early-stage robotics.

SaaS sector analysis

SaaS valuations and buying opportunities after the correction

Research theme

Sell-put strategy

Quality stocks near the review price — collect premium while you wait

Strategy

Arbitrage opportunities

Near risk-free spreads and structural mispricings

Research

Demo data only. Merger spreads change by the hour. Always verify the latest deal terms and regulatory status before taking any position.

Merger arbitrage — cash deals

A/H structural spreads — China

Research watchlist

Companies to study, not recommendations

Company	Market	Current	Fair value	Review price	Discount	Required margin	Framework	Status

约翰·聂夫《成功投资》· 第8章

地下廉价商场 · 52周新低猎场

参考日 2026-07-21 · 价格需自行核实

聂夫法则

每一条直达成功阶梯的基石都架设在豪华商场内那一旮旯里的旧货店铺中，在这里，每天都有廉价股票陈列出来。

价格创52周新低 ≠ 卖出信号，而是开始研究的起点。

核心公式 · TRR 总回报率比值

盈利增速% ＋股息率% 市盈率（P/E）

<1.0x 不考虑 1.0–1.9x 观察 ≥2.0x 买入候选

P/E 增速% 股息%

TRR = 0.73x

7条筛选标准

①低市盈率（显著低于市场均值）
②基本增长率 >7%
③收益有保障（非一次性）
④TRR ≥ 2.0x
⑤周期股须低P/E补偿
⑥成长行业中的稳健公司
⑦基本面良好

2318.HK / 601318.SH

中国平安

TRR 2.3x

低 HK$42当前 HK$53高 HK$60

P/E

6.75x

增速

~10%

股息率

5.5%

TRR

2.3x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④✓ ⑤✓ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

7/7 全过 · 困境反转股 · 猎场首选

1658.HK

邮储银行

TRR 2.9x

低 HK$4.2当前 HK$5.0高 HK$6.5

P/E

~5x

增速

~9%

股息率

5.5%

TRR

2.9x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④✓ ⑤⚠ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

6/7 · 大行中增速最快 · 最被忽视

3968.HK / 600036.SH

招商银行

TRR 2.1x

低 HK$30当前 HK$37高 HK$48

P/E

~7x

增速

~9%

股息率

5.5%

TRR

2.1x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④✓ ⑤⚠ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

6/7 · 零售银行之王 · H股低于账面值

0883.HK

中国海洋石油

TRR 2.8x

低 HK$15当前 HK$18高 HK$23

P/E

~6x

增速

~8%

股息率

TRR

2.8x

①✓ ②✓ ③⚠ ④✓ ⑤⚠ ⑥⚠ ⑦✓

5/7 · 周期补偿型 · 油价是关键变量

0836.HK

华润电力

TRR 1.9x

低 HK$12当前 HK$14高 HK$18

P/E

~8x

增速

~10%

股息率

TRR

1.9x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④⚠ ⑤✓ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

6/7 · TRR接近门槛 · 央企新能源

2601.HK / 601601.SH

中国太保

TRR 1.7x

低 HK$18当前 HK$22高 HK$28

P/E

~9x

增速

~10%

股息率

4.5%

TRR

1.7x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④⚠ ⑤✓ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

6/7 · 平安平价替代 · TRR待提升

1099.HK

国药控股

TRR 1.4x

低 HK$18当前 HK$21高 HK$26

P/E

~9x

增速

~9%

股息率

3.5%

TRR

1.4x

①✓ ②✓ ③✓ ④⚠ ⑤✓ ⑥✓ ⑦✓

6/7 · 股息偏低拖累TRR · 老龄化受益

9988.HK / BABA

阿里巴巴

TRR 1.3x

低 HK$68当前 HK$80高 HK$110

P/E

~10x

增速

~8%?

股息+回购

TRR

1.3x

①✓ ②⚠ ③⚠ ④⚠ ⑤✓ ⑥✓ ⑦⚠

4/7 · 增速存疑 · 监管风险减退 · 观察

⚠ 价格与52周区间为参考估算，非实时数据。低价股不是买入信号，只是研究起点。决策前请自行核实当前市场价格及最新基本面数据。

Triggered

Review zone alerts

Research inputs

Sources to cross-check

FilingsAnnual reports, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and shareholder letters.

Guru holdings13F filings, fund letters, and disclosed portfolio updates.

ValuationFair value ranges, owner earnings, and margin-of-safety assumptions.

QualityMoat, management, cash flow durability, and balance-sheet risk.

Margin of Safety Dashboard

Follow great investors, then wait for your own review zone

From idea to review alert

Owner mindset before price action

$10,000 held for 10 years

US total market cap / GDP

What the dashboard should and should not do

Dollar, gold, valuation, equity index, and P/E trends

Historical pressure points that reprice assets

When the Buffett Indicator is elevated

Allocation changes with market valuation, reviewed twice a year

买入前必须通过全部6关

Track proven investors and their public research trails

Why they own it, where our review price sits

Holdings & watchlist — five-step valuation

中国平安 H股

福耀玻璃 H股

格力电器

伊利股份

SGOV

买供应链，不买整车 — Levi's 法则

Low-cost tokens need power, compute, networks, and platforms

Robots, automation, sensing, and autonomous systems

SaaS valuations and buying opportunities after the correction

Quality stocks near the review price — collect premium while you wait

Near risk-free spreads and structural mispricings

Companies to study, not recommendations

地下廉价商场 · 52周新低猎场

Review zone alerts

Sources to cross-check