AI investment research cockpit

Margin of Safety Dashboard

What this is

Follow great investors, then wait for your own review zone

Demo
Purpose Research
Tracked ideas 0
Triggered 0
Advice given None

The dashboard tracks public holdings, valuation ranges, and user-defined review prices. It does not tell users to buy or sell.

Core workflow

From idea to review alert

Framework
FindCollect companies from Berkshire filings, Morningstar, investor letters, and your own research.
ValueCompare current price, fair value, and a user-defined margin-of-safety price.
ReviewWhen price enters the review zone, generate a research memo instead of an automatic trade.
TrackUse paper portfolios and watchlists before any real-world decision.

Investment principles

Owner mindset before price action

Core rules
1 Buying a stock means buying a business.

Do not study the ticker first. Study how the company makes money, why customers pay, what can go wrong, and whether it is inside your circle of competence.

2 Good companies still need a margin of safety.

The value of a business is the present value of future owner cash flows. A great company can still be a poor investment if the purchase price leaves no room for error.

3 If you would not hold it for 10 years, do not buy it.

Long holding periods let business quality, reinvestment, and compounding do the heavy lifting. The goal is not activity; the goal is durable ownership.

4 Never risk permanent capital loss.

Compounding is powerful, but losses are brutal. Avoiding permanent loss matters more than chasing every extra point of return.

Compounding example

$10,000 held for 10 years

The longer the runway, the larger the compounding gap.
5%$16,289
10%$25,937
15%$40,456
20%$61,917

Buffett Indicator

US total market cap / GDP

Current reading ~219%
Extreme
Fair Warm Hot Extreme
FairBelow 100%
Warm100%-150%
Hot150%-200%
ExtremeAbove 200%
The Buffett Indicator compares the total value of the US stock market with US GDP. It is a valuation temperature gauge, not a precise timing signal. At about 219%, this demo reading sits in the Extreme zone.

Research discipline

What the dashboard should and should not do

Guardrails
Show factsPrices, estimates, filings, ratings, and memo history.
Flag zonesHighlight when a stock reaches a user-defined review price.
No adviceNever say a user should buy, sell, or hold a security.
Paper firstVirtual portfolios come before real-money decisions.

Market indicators

Dollar, gold, valuation, equity index, and P/E trends

Cross-asset view
Demo/reference readings only. P/E series should be sourced consistently, because trailing, forward, index-level, and exchange-level multiples can differ materially.

Debt and liquidity anchors

Historical pressure points that reprice assets

Macro risk
Indicator Current reading Watch level Stress level Status

Market regime playbook

When the Buffett Indicator is elevated

Be selective
Do not panic-sell A high market-cap-to-GDP ratio is a temperature gauge, not a precise sell signal.
Do not chase Avoid deploying all new capital into broad indexes or popular compounders at stretched prices.
Let cash earn Use cash, T-bills, term deposits, or short-duration bonds as paid patience.
Raise the hurdle Demand wider safety margins, stronger balance sheets, and clearer owner-earnings durability.
Defensive bucket 35%-45% Cash, T-bills, term deposits, short-duration bonds.
Core bucket 25%-35% Broad index exposure, deployed gradually over 6-12 months.
Opportunity bucket 15%-25% Only for quality businesses that enter the user-defined review zone.
Hedge bucket 5%-10% Gold, alternatives, or other diversifiers where appropriate.
Buffett Indicator regime Defensive Core index Quality review zones Diversifiers

$100 Buffett Indicator model

Allocation changes with market valuation, reviewed twice a year

Educational
Example only: for a $100 paper allocation, the mix should move with the Buffett Indicator. Review the allocation semiannually, not every week. Price alerts can be monitored more often, but allocation policy changes should be slow and deliberate.

Guru investors

Track proven investors and their public research trails

Research map
Investor / Institution Style Primary sources How we use it

Guru holdings sample set

Why they own it, where our review price sits

Review zone Watch Expensive
Current $80 The market price available today.
Fair value $100 Our research estimate of what the business is worth.
Review price $70 The price where the idea enters deeper research, not an automatic trade.
Rule of thumb Review zone Above fair value is expensive. Below fair value is discounted. At or below review price triggers review.
Discount 20% How far the current price sits below fair value. A premium means the price is above fair value.
Required margin 30% The target discount from fair value to review price. It is a hurdle, not proof that today's price is safe.
Moat Wide The durability of the company's competitive advantage, such as brand, network, cost, or switching costs.
Status Watch The dashboard label based on price versus value. It is a research signal, not a buy or sell instruction.
Important: premium-priced ideas do not have a margin of safety. The table now shows a required margin hurdle, and premium rows are marked as not available at a premium.
How fair value is estimated Fair value is a research estimate, not a market quote. It can come from discounted future cash flows, owner earnings, sum-of-the-parts, asset value, or a conservative normalized earnings multiple. The method should match the business type.
How review price is calculated Review price applies a required margin to fair value. Example: fair value $100 and required margin 30% gives a review price of $70. Reaching the review price starts deeper research; it is not an automatic trade.
Why methods differ Compounders may use owner earnings and reinvestment runway. Banks and insurers need book value, float quality, solvency, and asset risk. Cyclicals need normalized earnings or asset-cycle analysis.
Company Held by Type Current Fair value Review price Discount Required margin Moat Status

China AI infrastructure sleeve

Low-cost tokens need power, compute, networks, and platforms

Research theme
Portfolio origin This research sleeve starts from the idea that low-cost tokens need a full infrastructure stack: power, chips, networks, cloud, and AI platforms.
Why we track it If token costs keep falling, AI demand can migrate toward infrastructure that delivers the lowest cost per useful task.
Main risk This is not a guaranteed safe haven. Policy risk, sanctions, capital controls, accounting quality, and price wars require a wider margin of safety.
Company Held by Type Current Fair value Review price Discount Required margin Moat Status

Research watchlist

Companies to study, not recommendations

Company Market Current Fair value Review price Discount Required margin Framework Status

Triggered

Review zone alerts

0

Research inputs

Sources to cross-check

FilingsAnnual reports, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and shareholder letters.
Guru holdings13F filings, fund letters, and disclosed portfolio updates.
ValuationFair value ranges, owner earnings, and margin-of-safety assumptions.
QualityMoat, management, cash flow durability, and balance-sheet risk.